Today I took a crash course in rain forecasting from 65 year old Muhumed Qalinle Aare. Aare lives in the village of Laaya deep in the Somaliland bush. His people are pastoralists and depend on his predictions.
Rain forecasting is a developed art among nomadic herders in the Horn and East Africa. Its origins, I am told, lie in a combination of Persian and African astronomy.I am not sure if I really got to grips with the subject but here is my understanding of how it is done. The first clue lies in the day of the week New Year, Nayruus, falls on. This year it was a Tuesday...not a good omen. For those with even the most basic grasp of science, this seems far from convincing. But then it gets more complicated.
In each month of the year there is a period of seven days when a certain set of stars should be aligned. Where exactly in the month these seven days fall is determined by the positioning of another star. In western Somaliland the first rains of the year are expected in late March. So, if in January the stars are aligned during the said period of seven days the March rains can be expected on time. Single men are advised to go forth and find a wife as it is set to be a bountiful year! If the stars are not aligned then alarm bells ring. If the same stars are aligned during February's seven day period and the wind is blowing from the south (Ithink!) then it is panic over. If not, then the rains are set fail...as is happening this year. Capiche.
Clearly there is more to the art than that. After all it takes years to acquire "the knowledge" to read the skies. The rest I fear was lost in translation. Aare can't say for now if and when the rains will arrive. After all they are "very disturbed" this year. But looking at this chart (above) produced by the Famine Early Warning Network, Aare's predictions at the start of the year are proving accurate. Just 10-50 percent of the expected rainfall has fallen over Somaliland in the last two months.
I asked Aare whether global warming is making it harder to predict weather patterns. Surely, in this day and age of green house gases and climate change the calculations that his great-grandfather applied no longer work. Aare quickly raised a finger. "Man is too weak to alter the skies. Only Allah has the power".
Shame. Religion trumps science and for me the mystery of rain forecasting unravells.