Nairobi Notebook

Courting Trouble

In a few hours the International Criminal Court is expected to seek the arrest of top Sudanese officials at its chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo opens a new file on Darfur. Diplomatic sources say Moreno-Ocampo is widely expected to include Sudan's President Omar Al Bashir, the first time the international court has even laid charges of war-crimes against an incumbent head of state.

Reports coming out of Sudan suggest Khartoum is a city poised to spit venom at western conspirators. Top of the list are the US and EU but the United Nations and even the aid agencies trying to alleviate the misery of millions of Darfuris won't escape the wrath of Khartoum. UN agencies are going into lock down, fearing retaliatory attacks for the ICC's move. On Sunday protesters at a government organised rally chanted "Down, down USA" while a Sudanese government spokesmen told The Times “If an international organisation or the organisations working in the humanitarian field are behind such an indictment of the head of state, our symbol of national sovereignty, then no one should expect us to turn our left cheek,” he said. Expect more blood to be spilled in Darfur.

Don't expect Sudan to heed Moreno-Ocampo's call to arrest Al Bashir. Khartoum does not recognise the ICC and Sudanese President has said Sudan will cooperate "over his dead body". The Darfur peace process is already in tatters but the ICC's move will do nothing to help get the process back on track.

Which begs the question: in whose interest does the ICC serve? No doubt it would be inaccurate to say there is no support for the ICC's move. I imagine there are countless Darfuris (especially those who have managed to flee the region) who are in full-support, as well as the human rights campaigners, the Mia Farrow's of the world. Certainly, the African continent has for decades allowed too many of its leaders to commit war crimes with total impunity and scant regard for the lives of their citizens.  I write this knowing full well that comments will fly back with allegations of hypocrisy - what about Bush and Blair in Iraq?! However the ICC's mandate to hold war criminals to account is necessary - but that does not mean it has to scupper peace efforts?

Just take a look at the case of the Lord's Resistance Army. There is little doubt that the ICC arrest warrants against Joseph Kony are the single biggest hurdle to sealing a peace accord. Given the untold horrors Kony has committed against the people of northern Uganda and southern Sudan, and now in DRC, he should fear eventual arrest and prosecution. So it is no surprise he refuses to emerge from his bush hideout. Would Kony have finally signed on the dotted line in Juba if all he had to do was return to Gulu, northern Uganda, step on an egg, drink the juice of bitter leaves and apologise to his people? It is the classic debate over "traditional custom of forgiveness and reconciliation versus western-styled punitive justice".

For more of this debate in the context of Darfur go to Making Sense of Darfur.
So what happens once Moreno-Ocampo announces his scalps? Firstly ICC judges will take up to three months to rule on the likely application for the arrest warrants. In the meantime the UN security council can pass a resolution suspending the ICC warrant if they fear the potential repercussions are too dangerous for Darfur. This would be another humiliating blow to the ICC which is having a torrid time of it at the moment.

Will He Stay or Go?

A few weeks ago I blogged on the farcical deal cut between the Kenyan Anti Corruption Commission and one of the greatest looters of Kenyan funds in the country’s history. The Goldenberg scandal of the early 1990s brought the Kenyan economy to its knees. Chief architect of the multi-billion dollar swindle was one Kamlesh Pattni. In April this year the KACC agreed to accept Pattni hand over his  5* Grand Regency Hotel to the Central Bank of Kenya, and thus the public. Pattni gloated on television that he had been “immunised”-  the KACC had granted an amnesty.

This week the farce has continued as details have slowly leaked out regarding the fraudulent sale of the Grand Regency, a sale directed by Kenya’s Minister of Finance, Amos Kimunya, and the Governor of the Central Bank. Kimunya’s cabinet colleagues claim they knew nothing of the sale, which was never offered out to public bids contrary to Kenyan law. Initially Kimunya denied the Hotel had been sold. A fellow minister blew-the-whistle and Kimunya backtracked admitting it had, for a price of 2.9 billion shillings $(45 million). Now it turns out the land and building were sold for just 1.8 billion shillings, way under the market value for a piece of Nairobi’s hottest real-estate.

Kimunya is a man on the rack. Yesterday parliament passed a vote-of-no-confidence against Kimunya. A 5-man team appointed by the PM Raila Odinga told the President Kimunya ought to resign and an investigation set up.

And you can bet Kimunya will resign. An even safer bet is that he will be back holding a ministerial post in a matter of months, a year or two at the most. He would be joining a fair-sized list of Ministers who have done the same…Prof George Saitoti to name one. He was named by an inquiry into Goldenberg years ago…but he wasn’t wondering in the political wilderness long before he was brought back on board.

It’s too early to say that Kimunya has pocketed public funds or whether he's just been careless. There is a strong whiff of corruption and at the very least however he has acted outside the law in what appears to be a fraudulent deal. Kimunya’s next few days and months will be a telling indication of whether Kibaki is serious, and indeed capable, of fighting corruption, or whether Ministers are still able rob Kenyans with total impunity. Bear in mind you get seven years behind bars in Kenya just for stealing a chicken!

 Needless to say, Kenyans are shaking their heads in dismay. I took a ride yesterday in Christopher’s (taxi driver) battered Toyota. “We work 24 hours a day for peanuts”, he bemoaned, “while they pay themselves a handsome salary. Why, why do they steal on top? It’s not enough for him to resign. He should go to jail.”

There is a danger Kimunya becomes the fall guy and we must not lose sight of the fact that this latest scandal is just one piece of a far bigger fraud. There are politicians and businessmen who need bringing to book. A year ago the KACC spokesperson told me that he could assure Kenyans " all the big fish would be brought to justice". If surrendering a hotel bought with stolen funds in the first instance is the KACC's idea of justice then these are sad times for Kenya.

Sick State of Health

I went to Hargeisa's General Hospital yesterday. It is Somaliland's only referral hospital. Apart from a brand new operating theatre (built with donor aid and equipped with $500,000 worth of equipment donated by the Kuwait Red Cross - not a Somaliland shilling from the government), the hospital is a depressing, pathetic place. Old, fading blood stains still splattered the paving stones beyond the main gate, the plaster-ceiling of the paediatric ward was caving in and the mental patients just don't get any care at all. There simply isn't the man-power to give patients the care they require so they lie chained to the bed. The deep groans and strong odour make for a tragic place.

The other day I blogged about the Somaliland government budget. $30 million dollars in all last year, up to $50 million this year thanks to some foreign funding for elections that the President decided to put-back a year. The Ministry of Health receives just $750,000 from the pie. As a result, the poorest patients in one of the poorest regions of the world have to pay for their own treatment and medicine. The official term is something like "community payment" i.e the clan pays. Doctors at the hospital are paid just $65 a month. A new medical school in the nearby town of Boroma is churning out the first doctors the country has trained for decades - 16 in all last year. The British government is having to supplement their salary with an extra $435 a month to keep them not only in the country but in the public sector.

In the paediatric ward, flies swarmed all over the plates of old food brought in by relatives of patients. There was a single oxygen cylinder in the corner of the room but it didn't work. There were three children in with severe malnutrition. The skin of one starving toddler, whose glazed eyes stared vacantly, was riddled with something nasty, his feet swollen with fluid. The remedy should be simple, starting with high energy milk. Except there isn't any high-energy milk in the country. "His case shouldn't be difficult", said Dr Farhan, one of last year's medical graduates, "but we can't be sure he'll make it".

The one ray of hope for this hospital is its staff...paid peanuts but dedicated to caring for their patients.

That's it from Hargeisa. Back to Nairobi.

 

How to Spend a National Budget of $30 Million

I am told that last year that the 'Somaliland government' (we have to remember that this is not an internationally recognised state)  had a  budget of  just $30 million to play with.  More than half of this I understand would have been spent on defence and security...when you are a breakaway republic your borders need defending!

That leaves no more than $15 million for health, education, and justice...not to mention agriculture, immigration and social security...if only. No international recognition means no direct foreign budgetary assistance...quite literally zero dollars, neither direct contributions to a government pot, nor ringfenced to specific programmes. Some money does make its way through UN programmes and international aid agencies, but the numbers are miniscule relatively speaking. The frustration of Somalianders'  is understandable when you consider the money being paid to warlords in neighbouring Mogadishu - see this article written by Rob Crilly of The Times of London.

Just in case $30 million sounds a decent chunk of money, here's how far it goes elsewhere...

Saddam's Yacht - the decor aboard this floating palace - originally called Qadissivat Saddam - includes Arab the decor aboard the floating palace -originally called Qadissivat Saddam - include Arabesque  arches, dark wood carvings, deep pile carpets and loose rugs woven in Islam's holiest cities.

Carlton House, London. Price: £17 million - This new, 15,000-square-foot house on a half-acre features a 50-foot long ballroom, catering kitchen fitted out for banquets, has nine bedroom suites, all with Italian marble bathrooms. The leisure complex has a heated mosaic swimming pool, sauna, gym and a 12-person Turkish bath, and, like Thunderbirds, there is a vehicle lift that takes your car from the forecourt into the four-vehicle garage below.

And should you ever forget your swim-wear on holiday, how about this for value for money! The bikini, contains over 150 carats of flawless diamonds, some of which are the rarest in the world including a 51-carat, pear-shaped diamond, a 30-carat emerald cut, a pair of 15 carat rounds  and a pair of eight carat pear shaped stones. The stones are sent in platinum for one valuable and very tiny bikini.

To prove it is the real deal, you can see it being modeled at http://www.luxist.com/2006/02/15/the-30-million-diamond-bikini/

Passport to Nowhere

One intriguing, unusual problem that citizens of the breakaway republic of Somaliland face is which passport to carry. Under the Somaliland constitution they are required to travel on a Somaliland passport. But there is a snag: the international community has for the last 17 years refused to recognise Somaliland as an independent, sovereign State. In the eyes of international law this isolated, impoverished, yet relatively stable region of the Horn of Africa remains a part of Somalia. Present a Somaliland passport to any immigration officer and he will send you back in the direction you arrived.

I am told this is exactly what happened to President Dahir Rayale Kahin in the United States a couple of years back.

The other option is to hold a Somali passport. This however is illegal under Somaliland law. But a Somali passport is desperately easy to get hold of. At various roadside junctions in central Hargeisa currency vendors sit at battered metal containers piled high with brick-size wedges of Somaliland shillings, US dollars and Euros. Wedged into these stacks of cash are Somali passports.   

“We sell these passports because our government is not recognised, so if we want to do business outside Somaliland we have to use this document”, 26 year old Hussein told me flicking through the front pages of a pristine Somali passport. Adding ones details is no sweat – simply glue a photo over the box that says ‘picture’ and fill in your details by hand. A minister’s signature is required from Mogadishu – if indeed there is a Minister of Immigration -but that is easily circumvented.

“We just forge the signature”, Hussein said nonchalantly.
 
“And the Somaliland officials turn a blind eye?” I asked. “Of course they do”, smiled Hussein, “They have to travel on these passports too”.

So, should you want one, for $42 a Somali passport is yours on the streets of Hargeisa

Rain from the South

Today I took a crash course in rain forecasting from 65 year old Muhumed Qalinle Aare. Aare lives in the village of Laaya deep in the Somaliland bush. His people are pastoralists and depend on his predictions.

Rain forecasting is a developed art among nomadic herders in the Horn and East Africa. Its origins, I am told, lie in a combination of Persian and African astronomy.I am not sure if I really got to grips with the subject but here is my understanding of how it is done. The first clue lies in the day of the week New Year, Nayruus, falls on. This year it was a Tuesday...not a good omen. For those with even the most basic grasp of science, this seems far from convincing. But then it gets more complicated.

In each month of the year there is a period of seven days when a certain set of stars should be aligned. Where exactly in the month these seven days fall is determined by the positioning of another star. In western Somaliland the first rains of the year are expected in late March. So, if in January the stars are aligned during the said period of seven days the March rains can be expected on time. Single men are advised to go forth and find a wife as it is set to be a bountiful year! If the stars are not aligned then alarm bells ring. If the same stars are aligned during February's seven day period and the wind is blowing from the south (Ithink!) then it is panic over. If not, then the rains are set fail...as is happening this year. Capiche.

Clearly there is more to the art than that. After all it takes years to acquire "the knowledge" to read the skies. The rest I fear was lost in translation. Aare can't say for now if and when the rains will arrive. After all they are "very disturbed" this year. But looking at this chart (above) produced by the Famine Early Warning Network, Aare's predictions at the start of the year are proving accurate. Just 10-50 percent of the expected rainfall has fallen over Somaliland in the last two months.

I asked Aare whether global warming is making it harder to predict weather patterns. Surely, in this day and age of green house gases and climate change the calculations that his great-grandfather applied no longer work. Aare quickly raised a finger. "Man is too weak to alter the skies. Only Allah has the power".

Shame. Religion trumps science and for me the mystery of rain forecasting unravells.

Dead Capital

I was driving along Nairobi's Langata Road today. It seperates Kibera, a god-awful place, and Langata, a plush part of Nairobi that is home to  government ministers and the likes.

It got me thinking about the Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto who has an interesting theory on title deeds in slum areas such as  Kibera slums. He puts forward a somewhat hypercapitalist argument that governments in the developing world should legalise their squatters. He argues that in doing so governments would liberate what he calls the “dead capital” inherent in their homes and automatically give them a place in the market economy. Slum dwellers would, he claims, have capital to offset loans against. De Soto talks of billions of dollars worth of unrealised capital that could lift slum residents out of their impoverished conditions.

In Kenya, slums like Kibera, which is commonly referred to as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest slum, were until the turn of this century not even recognised as formal settlements. Until the end of former President Daniel Arap Moi’s rule,  Kibera did not appear on maps of Nairobi, instead the settlement was marked as forest…nevermind the fact that Kibera is home to one million people.

I am not so sure de Soto's theory works in a place such as Kibera and in his book, Shadow Cities, author Robert Neuwirth raises certain points that I agree with. To start with, in Kibera the vast majority of residents are tenants and not landlords. Some landlords are wealthier slum dwellers, others are local big-men who over the years have grabbed land and put up decrepit mud-walled shacks knowing there is an insatiable demand for dirt-cheap housing. So who would get the title deed? The tenant or the landlord? And if the landlord then how exactly would those at the bottom of the pile benefit from this liberated capital?

Secondly, Nairobi’s slums are a hive of economic activity. It’s just informal and, most importantly to the residents, tax free. Spend five minutes in Kibera and you will meet women trading charcoal and vegetables, young men hawking anything from stolen mobile phones to second-hand clothing. I am not sure they would want to be above board and legal…that would mean paying taxes and probably put them out of business.

I am not an economist so would be interested in hearing people's thoughts...

Old Boys Club

Last year Kenyan MPs voted - overwhelmingly believe it or not - in favour of giving themselves a massive pay-rise. They are now some of the best paid parliamentarians in the world (probably the best if you work out their hourly salary given the pitiful amount of time they actually spend in the chamber), taking home close to one million shillings (some $15,000) a month in salary and allowances.

But today we learn from The Standard that they are not finished yet. Having looked after themselves MPs are now turning their attentions to their predecessors. Not just their immediate predecessors...the 345 million shilling secret "send-off" includes every living MP who has entered into office since Kenyan independence in 1963. The speaker of the house has called the payment a "token gesture of appreciation".

A token gesture maybe how the political elite in this country perceive such sums of money. But I doubt that's how the 18 million or so people who live on less than a dollar a day here will see it. So pity the Kenyan tax-payer who will have to foot the bill while trying to keep his above water as   the price of  oil soars, food prices  show no immediate sign of steadying and inflation skips past 20%.

And if this move by the old boys network isn't enough to make you shake your head with despair as the blood boils, then take a look at the direction Kenya's political leaders continue to take the fight against corruption. A parliamentary committee has laid its hands on a document detailing an amnesty deal between the Anti-Corruption Commission - located within the absurdly named Integrity House - and Kamlesh Pattni, one of Kenya's wealthiest businessmen and a principal scoundrel in the Goldenberg scandal. In return for immunity Pattni has had to surrender his luxurious Grand Regency Hotel. Big deal say many here, he financed the hotel
with millions of dollars stolen from the Kenyan economy in the first place.

When I interviewed the Anti-Corruption Commission's spokesman, Nicholas Simani, last year  he assured Kenyans they would see the  day when the "big fish" were held to account. You would assume that included the masterminds behind Goldenberg. The paper-trail is supposedly there but there is zero politcal will...plus ca change!

Satirical Relief

Reading the newspapers in Kenya often involves sifting through stories of murderous jilted lovers, acts of depraved pedophilia and pages of political reportage that consistently fail to take the country's politicians to task. Sure, press freedoms are not all they could be. You do not have to cast your mind too far back to recall the armed raids on the offices of the Standard Newspaper and Kenya Television Network which the  government supposedly ordered on the grounds of "protecting state security".  Perhaps the media has has less room in which to manoeuvre than might appear?

But if you want an example of someone willing to push the boundaries and indulge himself in political satire then check out GADO's sketches. GADO - real name Godfrey Mwampembwa - rarely fails to read between the lines and let his pencil do the talking. Take today's sketch (see left) over recent calls from certain quarters within the cabinet for an amnesty for those who committed all manner of heinous crimes during the post election violence. The speech bubble "my people need protection" says it all and anecdotal evidence says that protection could be needed higher up the political echelons than many Kenyans would like to accept.
 

What bugs me is why if GADO gets it can the reporters not say it, instead filling column inches with who will make up yet another commission of inquiry.

This is my favourite sketch of the year. It sums up perfectly the outcome to the political turmoil: more than a thousand lives lost for the sake of two egos being able to say they both won. At the time my friend Steve Bloomfield, who writes for The Independent, asked Raila Odinga why neither he nor Kibaki had been out to their constituencies to defuse the tension. His answer - something along the lines of 'there's nothing I can do' - was nauseating. This sketch said more than all the commentaries and analysis that filled the papers.

GADO's work is a breath of fresh air in a paper that aligns itself a little to closely to Kibaki for my liking.

  

How Are We Supposed to Fill the Pool?

The taps were supposed to run dry at 9am this morning. That was the warning - not that I had noticed the double page spread taken out by the Nairobi Water Company. So we have filled every receptacle in the house. I figure 50 litres is more than enough to see us through the 48 hours rationing. Vic, who suffers water-panics if there isn’t water within five metres of her, isn’t so sure. The good people at the water company can’t tell me how long the rationing will last. My guess is a while.

For the time being water is still flowing from the taps, but perhaps we are just draining the tank.

We are told the dams are running dry. Ominously, we are supposedly in the middle of the long rains. But they have failed to materialise. Indeed right now the sun is blazing its way through my window and my study feels more like a greenhouse. There is not a black cloud in sight and we have a long wait until the next rains are due in November. It doesn’t take a hydro-engineer to work out that the rationing will have to increase in the coming months if the rains do indeed fail.

No doubt the water bill will continue to rise even though our water consumption falls. The same happened when I lived in Kampala. Again the trigger was erratic rain patterns and low water levels in Lake Victoria, the source of Uganda’s hydro-electric power. The load-shedding got so bad the power grid was turned off every other day, industry was crippled and we lived by candlelight. But that didn’t stop our bills nearly doubling. If anyone can explain which law of economics this follows I would be very grateful.

So I guess we’ll blame this latest inconvenience – how after all are we going to keep the compound’s swimming pool topped up? – on global warming and Kenya’s insatiable demand for firewood.

I remember talking to an Kikuyu lady, Elizabeth Kinyanjui, around this time last year. Her hands were calloused from a  lifetime's  farming  in the tea-plantation clad hills of Limuru just outside Nairobi. Once upon a time she could mark the days she would plant her crops in the calendar. That is how reliable the rains were. Now she has no idea when is best. Back then apparently the hillsides were covered in trees which would "pull the rain down". Elizabeth is not a scientist but she has got the basic gist.